MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
Michael Ratney is with us now for a closer look at how the Saudis are approaching the war in the Gulf. He was U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia in the Biden administration. That, after extensive diplomatic experience in the region. He's now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. That's a bipartisan nonprofit research organization. Ambassador, thanks so much for joining us.
MICHAEL RATNEY: Good morning, Michel.
MARTIN: So the U.S. and Israel launched their war against Iran more than five months ago. Why do you think the Saudis chose to publicly enter the fighting now?
RATNEY: So the Saudis are trying to strike a balance. They don't want a full-scale resumption of conflict 'cause I think they fear they'll bear the brunt of an Iranian reprisal. And just witness. The Iranians attacked Jordan and Egypt in the past couple of days. That was a message to the whole region that they still have a lot of power.
On the other hand, Saudi was just attacked by Iranian proxies, both from Iraq against critical infrastructure in the eastern province of Saudi Arabia but also the Houthis in Yemen striking Saudi oil tankers and threatening to cut off maritime traffic through the Bab al-Mandab. I think the Saudi view was they couldn't leave that unanswered. That was kind of their critical interests. And they remember 2019 when Iran or Iranian proxies attacked their oil infrastructure in the eastern province, and nothing happened. So they couldn't let it go unanswered this time.
MARTIN: What's your sense of how Saudi military involvement might evolve in the coming days and weeks?
RATNEY: So I think they have no interest in a full-scale escalation. If the war escalates, if - especially if they're involved - I think they feel like the Iranians are going to target them. And at this point, the Saudis don't want their energy infrastructure targeted. They - there could be damage to water desalination facilities, to civilian population centers. It could be disastrous for their economy. They hate the Iranian regime, but they just want this war behind them. But in a way that protects their vital interests.
MARTIN: I take your point that - I - what I think I hear you saying is that the Saudis at this moment felt they really had no choice. But I think a lot of people might remember that the tensions with Saudi Arabia surfaced over President Trump tying this newly signed nuclear power deal to Saudi - to the Saudis, normalizing relations with Israel. And so I was wondering, you know, given that context, is it surprising for the U.S. and Saudi militaries to stage these joint strikes on these Iran-affiliated groups in Iraq?
RATNEY: So I think the Saudis, as well as anybody, know that kind of policymaking in Washington is not exactly linear, right? So some kind of weird arrangement could happen when this nuclear deal was announced, and President Trump throws in a condition at the last minute. On the other hand, there's discussions about how to respond to Iranian aggression that affects Saudi interest at the same time, right? So the Saudis, like other U.S. partners - one of their overriding considerations is just trying to keep things on an even keel with the Trump administration. And I think that means understanding that things are not necessarily going to be coherent.
MARTIN: And I do take your point that the Saudis don't want to widen this war, but does their involvement risk widening the war?
RATNEY: Sure. I mean, we've seen, in the past couple of days, the war widening in a number of ways, although President Trump seems to want to back away from a full-scale resumption of conflict. The Iranians keep reminding everybody that they're there, and they're still pretty potent with the ability to threaten our partners throughout the whole region. The Saudis get involved, and that potentially triggers more reprisals from Iranian proxies in Iraq, in Yemen and elsewhere. There's always huge risk whenever other parties get into a conflict like this.
MARTIN: And before we let you go - we have about a minute left - what are the Saudis' capabilities, you know, primarily?
RATNEY: So they have years of collaboration with the U.S. military and a pretty potent air force. We've seen in this operation in Iraq, though, that to be truly effective, it had to be done in partnership with the United States. And I think they appreciated the fact that the United States was willing to join in at that point. But their abilities at this point are principally their air power. And I think they want to send a message that they're ready and willing to kind of resume their involvement if their critical interests are affected.
MARTIN: And diplomatically?
RATNEY: Diplomatically as well, you know? I just saw a report that they have marshaled or are in the process of marshalling a lot of international support for an operation in the Bab al-Mandab in the Red Sea to try to police Houthi threats. And that really suggests considerable diplomatic and regional influence that they could bring to bear.
MARTIN: That's Michael Ratney. He's a former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia. Ambassador, thank you so much for joining us.
RATNEY: My pleasure. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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