Which two candidates will come out on top of today’s voting and make the U.S. Senate runoff December 10th?
“Most people assume that it will be one Republican and one Democrat,” says U-L Lafayette political science professor Pearson Cross.
That’s why Foster Campbell and Caroline Fayard have been targeting each other in the debates and in their ads, while Charles Boustany and John Fleming are spending their ammo trying to take down John Kennedy, according to Cross.
“In essence, we kind of have an open primary that’s turning into a closed election.”
LA Politics.com pundit Jeremy Alford says State Treasurer John Kennedy, a Republican, is best positioned to advance to the next round, and the key to which of the other contenders finishes in second place is African-American votes.
“For a Democrat to make it into the runoff, you’re probably looking at someone who needs to get about 16% of the white vote and 60% of the black vote,” Alford believes.
Alford says he’s recently been privy to some proprietary polls that show Fayard gaining with black voters.
“She’s outspending Foster Campbell 3-to-1 on TV. She has tried to connect Foster Campbell to David Duke with some ads,” Alford says of the potential surge by the New Orleans Democrat.
If Campbell and Fayard split the black vote enough, Alford says, it could change the whole runoff scenario.
“It could push a Republican like John Fleming into the runoff, who would be a rare all-GOP showdown for a Louisiana Senate race.”
Cross doesn’t believe that’s the likely outcome of today’s election.
“It’s not clear that there is enough support for two Republicans to make the runoff,” Cross said.
But tracking the month-to-month trends across non-partisan polls show that as undecideds decline, Kennedy and Campbell are gaining support steadily – across race and gender, and in all regions of the state.
Putting aside all the campaign strategizing, advertising and poll results, the main reason for advancing to the runoff may end up being as simple as name recognition.