LEILA FADEL, HOST:
The Trump administration's words and deeds about Cuba have drawn comparisons to this year's strike on Venezuela.
STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
A U.S. aircraft carrier has arrived in the Caribbean Sea. The Justice Department, which acts on the president's preferences, obtained an indictment of former Cuban President Raul Castro. And the president says he wants to, quote, "open Cuba" for Cuban Americans.
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PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: Other presidents have looked at this for 50, 60 years, doing something. And it looks like I'll be the one that does it.
FADEL: NPR White House correspondent Franco Ordoñez is here. Good morning.
FRANCO ORDOÑEZ, BYLINE: Good morning, Leila.
FADEL: So tell us more about why this indictment might be a prelude to a military operation.
ORDOÑEZ: Yeah. Ever since U.S. forces captured the Venezuelan president, Nicolás Maduro, I mean, Trump has been threatening military action against Cuba. I mean, he's gone as far as saying he can do, quote, "anything" he wants with the country. And Emily Mendrala, a former deputy assistant secretary of state covering Cuba, told me that the indictment fits into a pattern of events that really have echoes of that operation against Maduro.
EMILY MENDRALA: It's hard to understand exactly what the consequence of this indictment could be unless you look to Venezuela and the predicate for and U.S. military action in early January, where there was an indictment of Nicolás Maduro that the U.S. government used as its justification for engaging in that military action.
ORDOÑEZ: And she says the comparisons also include increased surveillance, high-level meetings between the two countries and a buildup of military assets. Steve, of course, mentioned the aircraft carrier.
FADEL: How different is the situation with Cuba from Venezuela?
ORDOÑEZ: Well, I mean, it's very different. Cuba does not have the same petroleum reserves that Venezuela does. It doesn't have petroleum reserves. The governing model is different. I spoke to John Bolton, who served as a national security adviser in the first Trump administration. And he said, is - it's certainly in America's interests and the interests of the Cuban people to see the regime removed from power. But he says the Venezuela model just won't work in Cuba. And he questions whether the U.S. is prepared for actual regime change in Cuba and what that would really involve.
JOHN BOLTON: And we need to know we've got the capability to do that and have thought through how to do it. In particular, have we really communicated with people in Cuba who would be responsible as the Castro regime collapses?
ORDOÑEZ: I mean, he's concerned that the U.S. hasn't adequately coordinated with dissidents, who would really bear the greatest part of the risk if this does go forward, including the brunt of repression if it doesn't work out.
FADEL: Does Trump's interest in Cuba make sense?
ORDOÑEZ: I mean, maybe not politically, because it's another example of foreign intervention. In this case, there's no oil to obtain or a nuclear weapon to stop. But it does make sense from Trump's lens of a personal legacy. As we heard at the top, he likes to say that he's done things that his predecessors were unable to do. And it's something his friends and allies are very interested in, including his Cuban American supporters and some aides. I mean, he lives in Florida and is surrounded by staff who are passionate about this issue. And of course, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been a driving force in this effort. He's the son of Cuban immigrants and has spent a good part of his career pushing for regime change in Cuba.
FADEL: That's White House correspondent Franco Ordoñez. Thanks, Franco.
ORDOÑEZ: Thank you, Leila. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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