MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
Israel hit numerous targets in Iran overnight. We don't yet know what the full impact has been, although Iran has said that some top military leaders were killed. We wanted to hear more about the strategy and possible motivations behind these airstrikes, and we've called Trita Parsi. We've called him because he's an authority on U.S.-Iranian relations and the executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. That's a nonprofit research institute headquartered in Washington. He's also the author of "Treacherous Alliance: The Secret Dealings Of Israel, Iran, And The United States." Good morning. Thanks so much for joining us.
TRITA PARSI: Good morning.
MARTIN: So what was - what's your top-line assessment of what just happened?
PARSI: Well, I think the top line here is that even though the Trump administration says that the U.S. was not involved, clearly, there had been coordination and some form of a green light given by the Trump administration for the Israelis to do this.
MARTIN: You say that because it's just not reasonable to assume that this would have happened without some thought that the U.S. would approve?
PARSI: Well, also based on what Trump is now currently saying because he's essentially trying to take advantage of these strikes in order to get the Iranians to capitulate in the negotiations. Because there has been an opportunity to strike a deal - one that would limit Iran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. But Trump shifted his position a couple of weeks ago, and was no longer content with just limiting the program and wants to essentially eliminate the program. And that led nowhere, predictably. And now, instead, it appears that he has shifted towards allowing the Israelis to conduct these strikes in order to see whether that will change the Iranian position or not.
MARTIN: So - but why would Israel do this, when negotiators were still talking about trying to reach this deal? It would seem like the U.S. and Israel are at cross purposes here.
PARSI: Well, in some ways, they are, because the Israelis don't want to see any deal at all between the U.S. and Iran.
MARTIN: But how does this help Israel, to sabotage a deal if the stated purpose is to secure the security not just of Israel, but the entire region?
PARSI: Well, I mean, it's a little bit more complex than that...
MARTIN: OK.
PARSI: ...Because the Israelis don't want to see the United States and Iran actually resolve their problems and see U.S.-Iran relations improve. The Israelis calculate that even if there is an improvement in U.S.-Iran relations and a reduction in U.S.-Iran tensions, it will not be accompanied by a reduction in Israeli-Iranian tensions. And as a result, this kicks in what they call the fear of abandonment - that the United States would improve its relations with Iran and move on to other issues, but Israel would be stuck with a hostile Iran. So the Israelis have, for more than 20 years, tried to sabotage any diplomacy between the United States and Iran. Netanyahu has been on record taking credit for Trump pulling out of the JCPOA in the first place - the Iran nuclear deal that Obama negotiated.
MARTIN: Iranian state media says Tehran will respond decisively to the Israeli strikes. I have a couple questions about this. First of all, you and other analysts have suggested this actually makes it more likely that Iran will continue to pursue a nuclear program.
PARSI: Well, nothing really strengthens your desire for a nuclear deterrent than actually being attacked. And you have now several heads of the Atomic Energy Agency who have been warning that any attack on Iran will increase the likelihood that the Iranians will leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty and move towards a bomb, and that risk is now very significant. So Trump is making a major gamble here, thinking that this actually will soften the Iranian position and make them capitulate. If they don't, what are his options? And this is where I think the Israelis are hoping that the Iranians will not capitulate, and that will force the United States into the war.
MARTIN: Does Iran have a capacity to retaliate as decisively as they suggest that they want to or will?
PARSI: That remains to be seen because much of Iran's top military leadership has now been assassinated and killed in these attacks. That doesn't mean that the physical capabilities, meaning that the missiles, et cetera, all have been destroyed. There's no indication of that. But at a minimum, their ability to respond is going to be delayed as a result of these major losses at the top of their military.
MARTIN: Before we let you go - we have about a minute left here - what's your sense of the impact of this on the region? 'Cause one of the things you were telling us earlier is that it's important to understand that residential buildings had to have been targeted because either military officials live there or scientists live there, which means that, by definition, their families, neighbors, would have been affected by this. We're not hearing so much about this now on Iranian media, state media. But we only have about 30 seconds left. What do you think the impact of this is going to be on the region - how people are going to respond to this?
PARSI: Well, this - they didn't have to attack the residential buildings. They chose to do so because they have completely set aside all norms around the use of force. If this was done by another country against the United States - killing, even if it was American soldiers, but not on the battlefield, not in the barracks, but in their homes, together with their children - the United States would rightfully call that terrorism. The impact on the region will very much depend on what the Iranian response is. Most countries in the region do not want to see a major military confrontation in the region.
MARTIN: That is Trita Parsi. He's the executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and an authority on the region's politics. Thank you so much for joining us.
PARSI: Thank you for having me. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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